Poll: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott Holds Commanding Lead in Texas GOP Primary

FILE - In this Sept. 28, 2018 file photo, Texas Governor Greg Abbott smiles before a gubernatorial debate against his Democratic challenger Lupe Valdez at the LBJ Library in Austin, Texas. Decisions about health care and education will top the agenda in many state capitols as lawmakers convene in new …
Nick Wagner/Austin American-Statesman via AP, Pool

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads candidate Allen West in a hypothetical Republican primary poll leading up to the Texas gubernatorial election in 2022.

In the hypothetical poll between Abbott and West, the majority (73 percent) of voters said they would vote for the governor, while only 17 percent said they would vote for West. Fewer respondents (ten percent) said they were undecided.

Of those decided voters, Victory Insight, the polling company, determined that 71 percent of the undecided voters leaned in favor of Abbott over West. This means 81 of the respondents would have chosen Abbott.

“Incorporating all of this data, our modeling predicts that – if the election were held today – Abbott would earn approximately 80% of the vote and defeat West in a heads-up Republican Primary (or, in practicality, a runoff),” Victory Insight noted.

The poll also found that former President Donald Trump still evokes extremely positive opinions from Texas Republicans. Of the respondents, 92 percent said that they had a favorable opinion of the former president. Of those numbers, 81 percent said they had a “very favorable” opinion.

Overall, 78 percent of Texas Republicans said they would choose Trump as their president again in 2024, compared to 22 percent who said they would support someone else.

The poll calculated that voters who identified themselves as “Trump Die-Hards” are more likely to support Abbott than West, 77 percent to 13 percent respectively. For those who did not identify as “Trump Die-Hards,” Abbott still led West by 68 percent to 20 percent, respectively.

The respondents were also asked to answer, “Which would you consider a higher priority when thinking about Texas’s future: defeating liberal ideology or supporting President Trump?” Fifty-five percent said they would support Trump, while forty-five percent said they support defeating liberal ideology.

The poll was conducted by Victory Insight between July 22 to 24, amongst 400 registered Republicans in Texas. The poll has a plus or minus of 4.9 percent.

“Our latest poll demonstrates Abbott’s strength as an incumbent, even in a heated race with many strong candidates. However, it would be unwise to count West out due to his relatively low numbers,” Ben Galbraith, Senior Pollster at Victory Insights, said in an emailed statement. “The election is months away, and West has yet to launch an aggressive outreach or GOTV campaign.

“One thing that this poll made even clearer was Texas Republicans’ unwavering support for former President Trump. Trump posted strong favorability numbers,” Galbraith noted.

Abbott was first elected in 2014 and is seeking his third term as governor. He’s already been endorsed by  Trump. Five Republicans have filed papers showing they will challenge Abbott in the Republican primary in the spring of 2022.

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